Russia’s invasion & the aggressive economic sanctions in a deeply globalised world will lead to massive global economic disruption & structural change
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A week of remarkable events signals far-reaching global economic & political change ahead
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Russia's invasion of Ukraine accelerates structural changes in the global economic & political system, requiring hard choices to be made.
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As the Covid experience shows, countries with strong social & political institutions – notably small countries – consistently out-perform. But big challenges lie ahead.
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From Ukraine to trade sanctions, global economic & political pressures are playing out in Europe. The response will shape the global economic & political system
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Globalisation is changing but not unwinding: global flows will be more regional, political, & shaped by big power rivalry
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My take on the issues that will shape the agenda for 2022, from Covid & inflation, to geopolitics, globalisation, & climate change (& more)
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High inflation is a deeply political as well as economic process, redistributing income across the economy – from negative real wage growth to more fiscal space
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20 years on from China’s WTO accession, we have likely reached the high water mark of China’s global engagement – with deep consequences for the world economy
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Economics shapes geopolitical relations, notably with China. But many countries are increasingly rebalancing between economics & politics.
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The globalisation debate offers lessons on what to do (and what not to do) in climate change policy: address the domestic politics of the transition
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Beyond near-term inflation concerns, policy should focus on managing price pressures from structural changes in labour markets & globalisation - and net zero
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International institutions have been challenged for some time, but pressures are building. New, flexible platforms are emerging in response.
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Six months on from the grounding of a super-sized container ship, the financial stresses of China’s largest property developer cause another global risk event. And more shocks are likely.
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As we wait for a post-Covid world to arrive, we may need to adjust our expectations. And some countries will need to adjust their approaches for new Covid realities.
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The scale and duration of the Covid shock has led to structural changes in policy and business models: a post-Covid reset is more likely than mean reversion
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The nature of the US withdrawal from Afghanistan reminds of the unilateral withdrawal from the Bretton Woods arrangements 50 years ago. Big powers act like big powers.
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As the IPCC warns on global climate change, the experience of managing Covid provides a perspective on the likely policy response.
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Geopolitical competition will continue to intensify, imposing costs – but also creating strong incentives for investment in innovation.
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