Making your own luck

There has been an avalanche of economic and geopolitical news over the past several weeks. From reciprocal tariffs to the role of the USD and changing geopolitical relations, the world is being rapidly reshaped. Decision-makers need to focus on the lasting structural changes amidst this turbulence, and the emerging opportunities as well as the risks. There is no going back.

I have spent much of the past few weeks writing and advising on the impact of Trump Administration policy on the global economic and geopolitical context. But the organising theme for my note this month is small advanced economies, the canaries in the mine of the global economy because of their deep external exposures. These small economies also highlight the importance of agency: economies can prosper even in a challenging global economic context, with serious, high-quality policy. There may be unexpected winners and losers in this emerging world.

The full note is available at: https://davidskilling.substack.com/p/making-your-own-luck