Global briefing: US v China/ Global supply chains/ German fiscal mess/ Kissinger/ Finland

In this week’s global briefing:

1. US v China: China’s GDP convergence process towards the US has stalled, with the US >50% larger in nominal terms; contributing more GDP growth and import demand.

2. Global supply chains: Covid-era global supply chain disruptions have eased, but global supply chains are deeply exposed to geopolitical risks and climate change.

3. Germany’s fiscal mess: The legally-required German fiscal policy tightening will drag on German and European GDP growth, and compromise its growth potential.

4. Kissinger & small states: Big power rivalry is back as Kissinger’s obituaries are written: but different approaches are needed to managing strategic competition.

5. Finland: Finland is on the front-lines of tensions with Russia. In addition to increasing hybrid warfare, Finland’s trade share with Russia is at 80-year lows.

The full note is available at: https://davidskilling.substack.com/p/global-briefing-us-v-china-global